7月10日开盘前瞻 | 美联储货币政策走向尚不明朗 恒指或将继续向下探底

时间:2019-07-16 来源: 星座
正规十大赌博平台大全

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the market is waiting for the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Congress, and investors are more cautious in entering the market. On Tuesday (July 9), the three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow closed at 26,783 points, down 22 points or 0.08%, and fell for 3 days. The S&P 500 closed at 2979 points, up 3 points or 0.12%. It closed at 8141 points, up 43 points or 0.54%.

The US stock market developed individually. The Hong Kong stock market ADR index was positive all day long. It was calculated on a pro-rata basis and closed at 28,218 points, up 101 points. The large-scale blue-chips stabilized. HSBC Holdings closed at 65.34 yuan, up 0.44 yuan from Hong Kong's close; Tencent Holdings closed at 353.53 yuan, up 0.73 yuan from Hong Kong.

The political situation in the United States and Iraq continues to be tense and there are no signs of easing. At the same time, API data showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, prompting international oil prices to improve. NYMEX oil futures closed at $57.83 a barrel, up 0.29%; Brent oil futures reported $64.16 a barrel, up 0.08%.

In late New York, the US dollar index was up 97.49, up 0.13%, and rose for three consecutive days, hitting a three-week high. The US dollar rebounded upwards, pushing the price of gold lower, but there were also a small number of low-buy buying to support the gold market. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.03% to $1399.6 per ounce, down for three days. COMEX silver futures closed up 0.56% at $15.135 an ounce.

The Hang Seng Index re-adjusted on Tuesday, opening 0.11% lower in the morning, fluctuating and falling throughout the day, falling below the 20-day SMA, and the daily line was four yin. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 215.41 points or 0.76% to 28,116.28 points, with a full-day turnover of 70.325 billion.

xxFrom the perspective of the disk, the turnover of the Hang Seng Index in the past two trading days is not large, and there are signs that the trading volume is gradually shrinking. As mentioned earlier: Through the retrospective history, the serious shrinkage does not mean that the decline comes, and the decline is the key signal of the change, while the HSI is in the middle. Of course, on the one hand, the Hong Kong stock market currently lacks funds and has a large selling pressure. On the other hand, it is also greatly affected by US stocks, as US stocks have also fallen in recent days.

On the technical level, as mentioned in the solution of Zhitong Hong Kong stocks last night, the current HSI trend is exactly the top of the “island reversal” pattern. Here is a little bit of the so-called gap theory: after breaking through the gap and relay gap After that, the HSI is squatting near the exhaustive gap. The so-called: a bang, and then decline, exhausted. The characteristic of the exhaustion gap is that the motivation for moving forward is insufficient, and the sustainability of the market is relatively poor.

In general, if the exhaustion gap is replenished within a few days, it means that the market generally begins to turn around. So, will the HSI turn to the trend today? otherwise. We have lengthened the timeline. In the past month, the Hang Seng Index has had many gaps and high open performances, mainly due to the positive news. In the near future, if there is no good news on the fundamentals, and I don’t say the trend, I can burn incense and worship Buddha without continuing to go down.

However, we can see that there is no real positive stimulus in the near-term fundamentals, so the next key is to focus on the core of the market: the Fed's monetary policy trend.

However, it can be felt that investors seem to be less willing to hold stocks and other riskier assets before Powell’s speech. Coupled with the recent lack of US stocks, the forecast for the HSI's upward momentum today is still insufficient, and there is a high probability that it will continue yesterday's performance and continue to test. However, it is expected that the decline will not be too much. With reference to the Hang Seng Index closing (high water 125 points), CBBC street-to-goods ratio (67:33) and Hong Kong stock ADR performance, investors are still confident in the mid- and long-term market performance. It depends on whether you can find support near the current point.

xxAt present, it is recommended that ordinary investors choose to continue to wait and see, waiting for the Fed to announce the final policy decision.

In terms of sectors, the recent market speculation is less hot, mainly based on defense. Under the weak situation, consumer stocks are a good choice for safe haven. The stocks worthy of attention include Australia (01717) and Haidilao (06862). Gaming stocks Sands China (01928) is relatively stable, with related stocks including Wynn Macau (01128) and MGM (02282), suggesting a small participation.

In terms of new shares, last night's dark disk Wanbao Shenghua (02180) closed at HK$10.92, up 10.3% from the offer price, earning HK$255 regardless of handling fee. The signing rate of 85% in one hand, investors can pay due attention.

xx
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